What it does
Icicle Spear is an Ice-type physical move that hits 2-5 times in a single turn. Each hit resolves independently — damage, critical hit rolls, and item interactions each happen per hit, not per use.
The hit distribution: 3/8 chance of hitting twice, 3/8 chance of three times, 1/8 chance of four, 1/8 chance of five. Average is just under three hits. Each individual hit has a base power of 25, so you're averaging roughly 75 effective base power per use — but with a floor near 50 (two hits) and a ceiling near 125 (five hits). That floor is relevant: you'll roll two hits more than one-third of the time.
The honest framing is that Icicle Spear's damage is unreliable against targets you want to KO cleanly. What it does that nothing else can: it breaks Focus Sash and Sturdy because the first hit leaves the target at 1 HP and subsequent hits finish the job. It destroys Substitutes mid-use, dealing real damage in the same action. These properties are the reason to run the move.
Who runs it
Mamoswine runs it at 16%. High Attack, Ice-type STAB, and the specific utility of breaking Focus Sash on fast opponents. The 16% rate reflects that it's not the default Ice STAB for Mamoswine in every build — there are stabler options — but for matchups where breaking a Sash is the key to the game plan, no other move does it as reliably.
Beartic uses it at 22%, slightly higher. Its Hidden Ability Slush Rush in snow doubles its Speed, pushing it into first-move territory. Getting off a Icicle Spear before the target acts means breaking their Sash or Substitute before they've contributed anything. That speed-doubled scenario is where Beartic's Icicle Spear does its best work.
How to use it
Lead with Sash-breaking as the primary goal: Against a fast, frail target you know carries Focus Sash, a normal Ice move is likely to leave it at 1 HP and let it fire off a crucial move. Icicle Spear guarantees at least two hits — the first strips the Sash, the rest follow through. This changes a 'survived with 1 HP and did damage' outcome into a clean KO.
Against Substitutes: If an opponent has set up a Substitute, Icicle Spear breaks it with the first hit and continues dealing damage to the real target with remaining hits. You get Substitute removal and offensive output in a single action, which is something most moves can't offer.
Avoid gambling it on bulky targets: If the target has plenty of HP and no Sash or Substitute, Icicle Spear's average damage is lower than a stable Ice move. Rolling a two-hit turn into a target you needed a clean KO on is a losing outcome. Save it for Sash situations; bring a different Ice move for general offense.
Beartic in weather: When Slush Rush kicks in, getting Icicle Spear off before a fast target acts is the priority. Doubled Speed makes first-move scenarios available against a much wider range of opponents, and popping a Sash before the turn ends removes a threat entirely.
Tips & strategy
Count the odds honestly: Two hits is 37.5% — close to a coin flip. Three hits is another 37.5%. Five hits is 12.5%, impressive on paper but not something to build strategy around. Evaluate the move on its three-hit average, not its five-hit ceiling.
In doubles, target the Sash carrier: Both opponents are on the field, and Icicle Spear only hits one. Spend it on the target you suspect carries a Sash or Substitute — usually the fast, frail Speed control or setup user. Hitting a bulky target with variable damage is waste; let another move handle that.
Multiple crit rolls are real, if low-value in expectation: Five independent crit checks per use means the overall crit probability is higher than a single-hit move. With a Scope Lens, the expected number of crits per use is actually meaningful over a game. It's not a reason to choose the move, but it's not nothing when you're already using it for Sash-breaking.